Impact of Macro Measures of Education on Fertility in Nigeria: A Time Series Analysis

Authors

  • Lorretta F. C. Ntoimo Department of Demography and Social Statistics, Faculty of Social Science, Federal University Oye-Ekiti
  • Stella A. Mbah Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Science, Federal University Oye-Ekiti

Keywords:

school enrolment, completion rate, total fertility rate, wanted fertility rate, crude birth rate

Abstract

Previous research that measured the direct influence of education on fertility in Nigeria utilized cross-sectional microdata from the Demographic and Health Survey or primary data collected from a sub-population of the country. However, such analyses are insufficient to fully account for how schooling influences fertility. Therefore, this study examines the impact of macro measures of education on fertility in Nigeria. The study analyzes yearly data rom 1970-2021 obtained from the World Bank website. The time series estimation includes descriptive analysis (frequency, percentage, mean, range, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis), unit root tests, and the error correction model as the estimation technique. Three measures of fertility—total fertility rate (TFR), crude birth rate (CBR), and wanted fertility rate (WFR)—are the dependent variables, and macro indicators of education (school enrolment, completion rate, percentage of trained teachers, and number of primary school pupils) are the independent variables. The effect of contraceptive prevalence rate and multidimensional poverty rate were controlled. The study finds a significant inverse relationship between male primary and secondary school enrolment, female primary school completion rate, and the number of primary school pupils with fertility rates. In contrast, gross primary school enrolment for females, secondary school enrolment for females, and primary school completion rate for males have a positive correlation with fertility rates. The independent variables explain a substantial portion of the variation in TFR, CBR, and WFR, with 89%, 86%, and 75% variance explained, respectively. The study's findings present a compelling case for policymakers to invest more in increasing school enrolment and completion rates to achieve a sustainable fertility transition in Nigeria.

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Published

2024-12-27

How to Cite

Ntoimo, L. F. C. ., & Mbah, S. A. . (2024). Impact of Macro Measures of Education on Fertility in Nigeria: A Time Series Analysis. Ife Social Sciences Review, 32(2), 12–28. Retrieved from https://issr.oauife.edu.ng/index.php/issr/article/view/256